Inglês: Interpretação – The future of rich nations

Growth forecasts for rich nations are usually negative, but fertility rates have been rising in some countries. What will the future be like for them?

One reason growth forecasts for rich nations are so grim is the common assumption that birth rates are falling. Fewer people will produce less income, and shrinking economies.

Only the assumption of aging populations may be wrong, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs that looks at key demographic trends for the 21st century.

Since bottoming out in 2001, fertility rates in a number of developed economies have actually been on the rise. Among rich economies, the jump is most pronounced in places like the United Kingdom, France, Spain, and the U.S. Larger immigrant populations in these nations have something to do with this, as they tend to have more children. Yet the effect is only short term, as migrants adopt the fertility rates of their new homes within a generation or so.

Goldman’s new analysis shows that another reason for the unexpected jump, and one that will play a bigger role in the future, is that women in rich countries have been having children later and later in life, something that traditional economic models don’t account for.

Standard estimates of fertility are still tabulated assuming that most women are having children in their early 20s, rather than late 20s or even 30s and 40s, as has become more common in rich countries with lots of women in the workforce. “In parts of Europe (this method of calculation) has probably understated true fertility by about 15 to 20 percent,” notes Goldman Sachs economist Peter Berezin. Those are big numbers, with potentially very significant ramifications. For starters, it could be that some of the problems faced by aging nations with shrinking tax bases (like, for example, overblown health-care spending, crumbling infrastructure, and budget shortfalls) may not be quite as bad as once envisioned. In fact, there is some evidence to suggest that we may soon start seeing mini baby booms, which, in 20 years or so, could have a significant impact on the size of rich nations’ workforces, a shift that can’t come too soon for countries now struggling with unprecedented levels of national debt. Another bright spot – recent surveys by Eurobarometer show that European women between the ages of 25 and 39 want to have more children, if only it were easier to find a better work-life balance. Note to European leaders: stop worrying about the effects of immigration and start creating better-paid part-time work.

(Newsweek, September 28, 2009) (Funece – Uece, 2010)

EXERCÍCIOS – FUNECE 2010 (adaptado)

1. The text refers to a report about demographic trends which shows that:

a) Fertility rates have fallen dramatically since the beginning of the 21st century.

b) While birth rates have risen in the U.S., they have fallen in the U.K.

c) Birth rates have risen in wealthy countries since reaching the lowest point in the beginning of the 21st century.

d) Countries like the U.K., the U.S., France, and Spain are among those with the lowest birth rates in recent years workplace.

e) Birth rates have fallen in developing countries.

2. One of the factors that have led to the surprising increase in birth rates in wealthy nations is the fact that:

a) The immigrant population has been reduced.

b) Women are choosing to become mothers at a later age.

c) Young women are having more and more children.

d) Hundreds of women are leaving the workplace.

e) Women and men are getting married at an earlier age.

3. In European countries women in the age group ranging from late 20’s to late 30’s are:

a) Willing to have more babies if they can reach a work-life equilibrium.

b) Too busy to think about having children.

c) Leaving their jobs to become full time mothers.

d) The main workforce of these nations.

e) Using different methods in order to get pregnant.

4. Among the problems in aging nations, the text mentions:

a) An increase in illiteracy rates among women.

b) Sudden shrinking of both budget and spending.

c) Spending on health-care for illegal immigrants.

d) Imbalance between the budget and the huge amount of money spent on health-care.

e) A decrease in the qualifications needed for jobs.

5. A sudden surge of births within the next few years could bring forth:

a) A significant increase of the workforce in approximately two decades.

b) A decrease in health-care investments.

c) A sudden crumbling of the infrastructure.

d) A shrinking of the budget.

e) An increase on economic problems for families.

6. A piece of advice suggested in the text is that:

a) People in developed countries should adopt children from poor countries.

b) More money should be invested in nuclear plants.

c) More part-time jobs with better salaries should be created in Europe.

d) Women should not give birth in their 40s.

e) Women stop thinking about having children.

RESPOSTAS

1. Birth rates have risen in wealthy countries since reaching the lowest point in the beginning of the 21st century. A resposta está em “Since bottoming out in 2001, fertility rates in a number of developed economies have actually been on the rise”. (Desde que ficaram bem baixas em 2001, as taxas de fertilidade em algumas das economias desenvolvidas têm, na verdade, subido.)

Resposta: c

2. Women are choosing to become mothers at a later age. A resposta está em “Goldman’s new analysis shows that… women in rich countries have been having children later and later in life”. (A nova análise da Goldman mostra que… as mulheres em países ricos estão tendo filhos cada vez mais tarde.)

Resposta: b

3. Willing to have more babies if they can reach a work-life equilibrium. A resposta está em “European women between the ages of 25 and 39 want to have more children, if only it were easier to fnd a better work-life balance”. (As mulheres europeias com idades entre 25 e 39 anos querem ter mais filhos, caso fosse mais fácil encontrar um equilíbrio entre o trabalho e a vida doméstica.)

Resposta: a

4. Imbalance between the budget and the huge amount of money spent on health-care. A resposta está em “…it could be that some of the problems faced by aging nations with shrinking tax bases (like, for example, overblown health-care spending, crumbling infrastructure, and budget shortfalls)”. (…poderia ser que alguns dos problemas enfrentados pelas nações em envelhecimento com base em taxas de encolhimento [por exemplo, gastos demasiados com saúde, deficiência na infraestrutura e cortes de orçamento].)

Resposta: d

5. A significant increase of the workforce in approximately two decades. A resposta está em “In fact, there is some evidence to suggest that we may soon start seeing mini baby booms, which, in 20 years or so, could have a signifcant impact on the size of rich nations’ workforces”. (De fato, há evidência que sugere que podemos em breve começar a ver um surto de bebês, que, em 20 anos mais ou menos, poderia ter um impacto significativo no tamanho da força de trabalho das nações ricas.)

Resposta: a

6. More part-time jobs with better salaries should be created in Europe. A resposta está em “Note to European leaders: stop worrying about the effects of immigration and start creating better-paid part-time work”. (Aviso aos líderes europeus: parem de se preocupar com os efeitos da imigração e comecem a criar trabalho de meio período e mais bem remunerado.)

Resposta: c